The global smartphone market could face its biggest decline in years in 2026, mainly due to a severe shortage of RAM memory chips. According to a new report by the International Data Corporation (IDC), smartphone shipments are expected to fall by 12.9 percent this year. If this happens, it would mark the lowest annual shipment volume in more than a decade.
At the same time, phone prices are likely to rise sharply. IDC predicts the average selling price of smartphones will jump 14 percent to a record $523. Experts say the shortage is being driven largely by the booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, and Google are buying huge amounts of memory chips for AI data centres. This has reduced supply for consumer electronics, including smartphones.
IDC researcher Nabila Popal said memory prices may stabilise by mid-2027 but are unlikely to return to earlier levels. She warned that ultra-budget phones priced under $100 could become permanently unprofitable to make.
The impact is expected to hit budget Android phones the hardest. Rising component costs are forcing manufacturers to pass higher prices on to customers. Industry analysts warn this pressure could push smaller smartphone brands out of the market.
Meanwhile, premium players like Apple and Samsung may benefit by gaining more market share. Reports also suggest the memory crunch is already affecting other tech products, with price hikes seen for devices from Raspberry Pi Foundation and Framework Computer.
The shortage could even delay future products such as the PlayStation 6 and **Meta’s next headset.
Overall, experts say the RAM crunch may reshape the smartphone market in the coming years.
